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What We're Watching Today

Econ Calendar Wed 9/30/26MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ETADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ETGDP International Trade in Goods (Advance) Personal Income and Outlays Corporate Profits Retail Inventories (Advance) Wholesale Inventories (Advance) 8:30 AM ETChicago PMI 9:45 AM ETEIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ETTreasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) Survey of Business Uncertainty 11:00 AM ET4-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
Econ Calendar Wed 9/30/26Fed SpeakersThomas Barkin Speaks 1:30 PM ETLisa Cook Speaks 3:25 PM ETAustan Goolsbee Speaks 5:10 PM ETNeel Kashkari Speaks 6:00 PM ET
Stocks and Bonds Pause Ahead of US Data, Micron $MU
Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief; Tehran receives U.S. proposal following Qatar talks - CNBC
Iran says it receives US response to latest proposal as Washington pulls out of Iraq - Reuters
The U.S. Military Exits Iraq, Leaving Behind a Nation in Peril - WSJ
The Fed’s main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here’s what to expect - CNBC
Pressure on U.S. Treasurys eases after 30-year yield hits highest level since 2002 - CNBC
Bonds set for bruising September, but stocks remain resilient - Reuters
Americans Want Populist Policies That Defy Traditional Political Labels - WSJ
The Gap Between the Rich and the Very, Very Rich Is Getting Wider - WSJ
Trump says he is embarking on 32 days of campaign travel before November elections - Reuters
We are capitalists: US Democrats push back against communist label ahead of midterms - Reuters
Former Trump prosecutor Jack Smith tells Senate he won't be silenced by prosecution threats - Reuters
Supreme Court lets Trump resume deporting migrants to countries not their own - Reuters
Hegseth to Announce 20% Cut to Senior Officer Ranks - WSJ
How the Pentagon Is Escalating Trump’s Drug War in Latin America - WSJ
Russia targets data centers in Kyiv as NATO condemns Moscow’s ‘irresponsible nuclear rhetoric’ - CNBC
Drastic budget cutbacks essential to fund Europe’s defense, Germany and allies warn - CNBC
Inflation jumps across euro zone, raising pressure on ECB to hike - Reuters
Burnham says UK should weigh post-Brexit EU options, including rejoining - Reuters
Chinese factory activity expands in September amid AI boom - Reuters
China’s Biggest Stimulus Push Since 2024 Underwhelms Markets - BBG
China's weak soybean demand dims prospects for US cargoes after tariff snub - Reuters
Republican committee chair calls for scrutiny of Seoul's China ties - Reuters
Japan August factory output unexpectedly falls - Reuters
Oil Falls on Signs of Middle East Export Recovery - WSJ
Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Is Spending Billions to Bypass Iran’s Grip on Hormuz - BBG
Gold ticks up, yet is set for monthly loss as Fed rate outlook weighs - Reuters
Surge in Bond Yields Is Spilling Over to the Dollar - BBG
US trade court to weigh challenge to Trump's forced labor tariffs - Reuters
Trump Backs Independent AI Audits in Shift of Safety Posture - BBG
AI’s coming roadblock in regulation: Antitrust hawks - CNBC
Wall Street’s Hopes for a Blockbuster IPO Season Are Fading - WSJ
Wall St regulator to unveil new retail investor proposals for private assets - Reuters
Dan Ives prepares to debut fund offering access to private companies fueling AI boom - CNBC
$NVDA (+0.2% pre) DeepSeek partners with Huawei to develop chip programming tools, reducing reliance on Nvidia
$SPCX (-0.2% pre) Anthropic agrees to pay SpaceX nearly double prior estimates for compute: report
$CBRS (-5.8% pre) Cerebras Officer Robert Komin Proposes $6.39M Share Sale
$KIDZ (+11.8% pre) KIDZ AI submits inquiry to $TSLA Tesla for 500 robotaxis
$HOOD (+2.8% pre) Robinhood unveils weekend hours, AI agents to allow users to trade nonstop
$AAPL (+0.3% pre) Apple Is Finally Ready to Enter Its Next Big Category: the Smart Home - BBG
$WDAY (-0.9% pre) Workday reduces headcount by 2.5%; mainly affects Product and Technology team
$BA (+2.6% pre) Navy Chooses Boeing to Build Next-Generation Jet Fighter
$J (+1.5% pre) Jacobs wins three-year SaaS contract for Nvidia R&D facility
$CBNK (+8.7% pre) $PEBO Peoples Bancorp to acquire Capital Bancorp in $728M all-stock deal
$HRL (+1.2% pre) Hormel Foods to buy Brakebush in deal valued at $1.06 billion
$MAT (-3.9% pre) Mattel names Roger Lynch as chairman and CEO, replacing Ynon Kreiz
$MSOS (-5.5% pre) DEA Judge Pauses Cannabis Rescheduling Case
$SRFM (+3.3% pre) Surf Air Mobility adds customer, hires ex-Palantir executive for SurfOS
$GME (+1.6% pre) GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen buys $10.6M in company stock
$ORCL (-0.9% pre) Aterio Flags Delay Risk for Oracle’s 1.3 GW Wisconsin Data Center
$AIB (+25.7% pre) AIB signs binding 50MW capacity deal with Nebius $NBIS
Anthropic IPO prospectus lays bare deep dependence on Big Tech partners - Reuters
Trump, AI CEOs sign voluntary safety pact, back data center expansion - Reuters
$TSM (-0.7% pre) TSMC evaluates potential Texas investment, sources say
$TSLA (-0.9% pre) Tesla lines up $30 billion credit lines as capex, AI push accelerate
$META (-1.1% pre) OpenAI takes on Meta with dots agent in autonomous AI push
$HPE (+4.2% pre) HPE shares surge on upgraded networking outlook and $1.2B Vultr AI deal
$DKI (-37.3% pre) DarkIris Inc. Provides Business Update on Cine3.AI Global Expansion and Entertainment Technology Ecosystem
ADP Employment Change (Sep) 90K vs 75K Expected
AUG PERSONAL INCOME: 0.2% V 0.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.9% V 0.9%E
AUG PCE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.7%E
Core PCE Price Index (Aug MoM) 0.2% vs 0.3% Expected
AUG PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.7% V 0.5%E
Q2 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.2% V 1.5%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.8% V 3.4%E
Q2 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: 6.1% V 6.4% PRELIM; CORE PCE PRICE INDEX: 3.3% V 3.6% PRELIM
AUG PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.7% V 0.5%E
$CBRS (-4.4% pre) OpenAI's latest GPT6.1 Sol Ultrafast is NOT running on Cerebras but is instead running at a low batch size on $NVDA NVIDIA GPUs.
$ABBV (+0.4% pre) AbbVie's ABBV-295 delivers up to 9.8% weight loss in Phase 1
$CAPR (+14.4% pre) Capricor jumps as study shows longer-term effects of deramiocel
$CNTB (+74.7% pre) Connect Biopharma reports positive phase 2 COPD trial results
$NVO (-0.8% pre) Patients switching to Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill from shots lose more weight in real-world study
$NVO $LLY Novo says Ozempic shows lower risk of cardiovascular events compared to Lilly's Mounjaro - Reuters
$RFL (-23.6% pre) The trial drug missed its main goal. Separately, treatment was associated with 85% lower mortality risk.
$SGMT (+9.9% pre) SGMT: Denifanstat achieved strong 52-week efficacy and safety, supporting advancement to U.S. Phase 3 trials (1/2)
$SGMT (+9.9% pre) Sagimet prices $115M stock and warrant offering on Nasdaq (2/2)
$SLXN (-15.6% pre) Silexion doses first patient in Phase 2/3 pancreatic cancer trial
$TLSA (+7.4% pre) Tiziana Life Sciences Seeks FDA Orphan Status for Intranasal Foralumab in Multiple System Atrophy
$VBIO (+31.8% pre) Valion Bio, Inc. (VBIO) Advances Oral Mucosal Entolimod; Next Test Targets Systemic Exposure
$VNDA (+4.2% pre) Vanda Pharmaceuticals Announces Positive Phase III Results for HETLIOZ®(tasimelteon) in Delayed Sleep-Wake Phase Disorder
$CAG (-2.9% pre) Conagra Profit Grows Despite Lower Sales
$CALM (-7.8% pre) Cal-Maine (NASDAQ:CALM) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q3 CY2026 Earnings, Stock Drops
$CNXC (-7.7% pre) Concentrix Stock Tumbles After Earnings as AI Transition Weighs on Revenue
$FDS (-2.3% pre) FactSet forecasts fiscal 2027 revenue, profit below estimates
$JBL (-4.7% pre) Jabil shares fall despite earnings beat and strong guidance
Top Earnings Wed 9/30 Aft: $BSET $MU $PRGS
Top Earnings T 10/1 Pre: $ACN $AYI $MKC
$CRWV (+2.1% pre) CoreWeave to add Nvidia Vera CPU to its cloud compute portfolio
$SNPS (+4.0% pre) Synopsys and $AMZN Amazon sign $1B+ multi-year silicon IP deal
Upgrades 9/30: $GO $NICE $PNFP $TGT
Downgrades 9/30: $ALLY $ARX $BKU $BOKF $DOW $FICO $LYB $MBLY $MRNA $MTLS $SSTI $XPEV
+Initiations 9/30: $ACHV $ALTO $CLS $COHR $CRL $CRWV $CVCO $FORM $IQV $JAZZ $LITE $NBIS N$ESR $NUVB $PSQL $RZLT $TRAX $TVE
$MRNA (-7.1% pre) Moderna (MRNA) Shares Fall Premarket After Citi Downgrades to Sell
$PYXS (-15.5% pre) Pyxis Oncology prices public offering for ~$110M in gross proceeds
Top Shareholder Meetings: $BIRD, $CNSP, $HHH, $JSPR, $NNBR, $VIVS
Top Analyst/Investor Calls: $CI, $CMPR, $HPE, $PWRL, $ROG, $SNPS
Top Conferences: o Canaccord WELL Summit o Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference o Lytham Partners Fall Investor Conference o Pickering Energy Conference o RBC Global Communications Infrastructure Conference o Stifel Cardiometabolic Forum o William Blair Biotech Focus Conference